Tuesday, March 22, 2016

Thursday Update

Well as I had mentioned earlier the SPC has most all of Central and North Alabama in a SLIGHT RISK for severe weather on Thursday.
The main threat will come in the for of damaging straight line winds as the squall line progresses eastward as well as a small tornado threat with cells that may form out ahead of the main line. While this mornings runs had very little in the way of CAPE the 18z NAM has really ramped up the cape showing 2000 jules at 4pm in west Alabama.
While I am not expecting a major tornado event a few tornadoes are possible. Here is the STP valid 4pm
There will be more than enough Helicity to support rotating updrafts that may develop. With that being said we could also be looking and some decent hail in the stronger storms.
This looks to be a daytime event and that could be concerning as it looks to hit during the best daytime heating. The time frame I am going with is 11am-9pm.. The one thing that may throw a wrench in this whole thing is this
The NAM is showing some rain showers developing early Thursday morning. If this happens it may stabilize the atmosphere enough to lessen our severe chances that afternoon. This is developing and I will post more tomorrow evening as we get closer to the event

Monday, February 22, 2016

Tuesday Update....

Ok folks we are just about 24 hours before the severe threat could begin to show its face across Alabama. Currently the SPC has areas south of I-20 in an enhanced risk for severe weather on Tuesday with a moderate risk to the South of Highway 80.
The NWS in Birmingham has issued its own graphic cast showing an elevated risk as well as estimated timing up into central Alabama
The surface low is supported by a deep trough, (and can be clearly can be seen in this output) Bulk shear values (0-6 km) nearing 100 knots, a low level jet (5,000 feet) over 60 knots.
With the SB cape values backed off a bit up into central Alabama and be more concentrated to South Alabama. As well as the STP values remain to be high in South ALabama
Now here is my thinking on locations of the severe weather
Now as far as timing while the NWS has it beginning as early as 4pm I feel the greater threat will come after 6pm. One thing that needs to be watched carefully is the flooding threat. Some places could see upwards of 3-4 inches of rainfall by the time it is all over. Take the time now to prepare yourself. Have a way to receive weather alerts if warnings are issued, have a plan in place, have a helmet to put on in case of a tornado hitting your home. Make sure you have a good flashlight in case of power outages. And make sure that when you go into your safe place that you have on regular shoes not flip flops or sandals..