Monday, February 22, 2016

Tuesday Update....

Ok folks we are just about 24 hours before the severe threat could begin to show its face across Alabama. Currently the SPC has areas south of I-20 in an enhanced risk for severe weather on Tuesday with a moderate risk to the South of Highway 80.
The NWS in Birmingham has issued its own graphic cast showing an elevated risk as well as estimated timing up into central Alabama
The surface low is supported by a deep trough, (and can be clearly can be seen in this output) Bulk shear values (0-6 km) nearing 100 knots, a low level jet (5,000 feet) over 60 knots.
With the SB cape values backed off a bit up into central Alabama and be more concentrated to South Alabama. As well as the STP values remain to be high in South ALabama
Now here is my thinking on locations of the severe weather
Now as far as timing while the NWS has it beginning as early as 4pm I feel the greater threat will come after 6pm. One thing that needs to be watched carefully is the flooding threat. Some places could see upwards of 3-4 inches of rainfall by the time it is all over. Take the time now to prepare yourself. Have a way to receive weather alerts if warnings are issued, have a plan in place, have a helmet to put on in case of a tornado hitting your home. Make sure you have a good flashlight in case of power outages. And make sure that when you go into your safe place that you have on regular shoes not flip flops or sandals..

Sunday, February 21, 2016

Tuesday Severe Threat?????

The buzz all weekend has been if we will see severe weather on Tuesday. Well as of 6pm models are getting into more agreement so some type of severe weather looks likely. Currently the SPC has the lower 2/3 of Alabama in a the standard Slight Risk for severe weather on Tuesday.
I feel the risk area will be shifted more to the north over the next 24-48 hours. based off what I am seeing. Right now all modes of severe weather are possible but currently the greatest risk for tornadoes in my opinion looks to be down on the gulf coast including Biloxi Ms, New Orleans La, Mobile Al, and Pensacola Fl. Here are a few models for Tuesday all valid at 6pm. STP
0-3km SRH
SB Cape
Notice all the higher values are along the coastal areas. Yes there will be enough instability across portions of central Alabama that we may see severe thunderstorms. Main 12 hour window looks to be from 6pm Tuesday-6am Wednesday. Stay tuned for later updates as we get closer and can nail down the exact impact locations a bit better. For those across Central and West Alabama keep up to date by following WVUA23 Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott on FB WVUA 23 Richard Scott or if you are in Southwest Alabama or Northwest Florida you can tune into Spinks Megginson at (link on the right side of the blog)

Monday, February 1, 2016

Tuesday Update..

Ok folks now is the time to make sure you are prepared for severe weather. Make sure you have a way to receive weather alerts tomorrow. Make sure you have a plan in place if your area is placed under a tornado warning.Make sure you have a flashlight with good batteries, make sure to have a helmet to help protect your head. The SPC has not changed the their thinking on the current outlook which now has all of NW Alabama in an enhanced risk tomorrow evening. Areas along I-20 to I-65 to the Northwest seem to be under the biggest threat.
I have been in contact with local Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott over at WVUA23 discussing timing and strength of the system. Like I mentioned this morning it is hard to overlook the short range mesoscale models when it comes to severe weather and the NAM is still hinting at SB Cape values around 750 j/kg
and the GFS is around 500 j/kg. EHI values are almost 2 which is not real high but it only needs to be at 1 for severe weather. Whats problematic is the bulk shear that looks to be 60-65 knots
and the 0-3km SRH is extremely high and more than sufficient to support rotating updrafts
The Significant Tornado Parameter is not overwhelming but high enough to bare watching
Here is a timeline from Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott on when you can expect the storms in your area.
Remember the lines you see here as far as the outlooks and timelines are just that LINES. Storms do not know these colors and storms are expected almost anywhere across Alabama tomorrow night just the higher chance in my opinion will in NW Alabama and points to the NW
Stay tuned for any changes that may develop.