Sunday, February 21, 2016

Tuesday Severe Threat?????

The buzz all weekend has been if we will see severe weather on Tuesday. Well as of 6pm models are getting into more agreement so some type of severe weather looks likely. Currently the SPC has the lower 2/3 of Alabama in a the standard Slight Risk for severe weather on Tuesday.
I feel the risk area will be shifted more to the north over the next 24-48 hours. based off what I am seeing. Right now all modes of severe weather are possible but currently the greatest risk for tornadoes in my opinion looks to be down on the gulf coast including Biloxi Ms, New Orleans La, Mobile Al, and Pensacola Fl. Here are a few models for Tuesday all valid at 6pm. STP
0-3km SRH
SB Cape
Notice all the higher values are along the coastal areas. Yes there will be enough instability across portions of central Alabama that we may see severe thunderstorms. Main 12 hour window looks to be from 6pm Tuesday-6am Wednesday. Stay tuned for later updates as we get closer and can nail down the exact impact locations a bit better. For those across Central and West Alabama keep up to date by following WVUA23 Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott on FB WVUA 23 Richard Scott or if you are in Southwest Alabama or Northwest Florida you can tune into Spinks Megginson at (link on the right side of the blog)

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