Monday, February 1, 2016

Tuesday Update..

Ok folks now is the time to make sure you are prepared for severe weather. Make sure you have a way to receive weather alerts tomorrow. Make sure you have a plan in place if your area is placed under a tornado warning.Make sure you have a flashlight with good batteries, make sure to have a helmet to help protect your head. The SPC has not changed the their thinking on the current outlook which now has all of NW Alabama in an enhanced risk tomorrow evening. Areas along I-20 to I-65 to the Northwest seem to be under the biggest threat.
I have been in contact with local Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott over at WVUA23 discussing timing and strength of the system. Like I mentioned this morning it is hard to overlook the short range mesoscale models when it comes to severe weather and the NAM is still hinting at SB Cape values around 750 j/kg
and the GFS is around 500 j/kg. EHI values are almost 2 which is not real high but it only needs to be at 1 for severe weather. Whats problematic is the bulk shear that looks to be 60-65 knots
and the 0-3km SRH is extremely high and more than sufficient to support rotating updrafts
The Significant Tornado Parameter is not overwhelming but high enough to bare watching
Here is a timeline from Chief Meteorologist Richard Scott on when you can expect the storms in your area.
Remember the lines you see here as far as the outlooks and timelines are just that LINES. Storms do not know these colors and storms are expected almost anywhere across Alabama tomorrow night just the higher chance in my opinion will in NW Alabama and points to the NW
Stay tuned for any changes that may develop.

No comments:

Post a Comment