Tuesday, March 22, 2016

Thursday Update

Well as I had mentioned earlier the SPC has most all of Central and North Alabama in a SLIGHT RISK for severe weather on Thursday.
The main threat will come in the for of damaging straight line winds as the squall line progresses eastward as well as a small tornado threat with cells that may form out ahead of the main line. While this mornings runs had very little in the way of CAPE the 18z NAM has really ramped up the cape showing 2000 jules at 4pm in west Alabama.
While I am not expecting a major tornado event a few tornadoes are possible. Here is the STP valid 4pm
There will be more than enough Helicity to support rotating updrafts that may develop. With that being said we could also be looking and some decent hail in the stronger storms.
This looks to be a daytime event and that could be concerning as it looks to hit during the best daytime heating. The time frame I am going with is 11am-9pm.. The one thing that may throw a wrench in this whole thing is this
The NAM is showing some rain showers developing early Thursday morning. If this happens it may stabilize the atmosphere enough to lessen our severe chances that afternoon. This is developing and I will post more tomorrow evening as we get closer to the event

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